Canada’s updated immigration targets for 2025-2027, which reduce the overall number of planned permanent resident admissions, are reshaping the landscape for Express Entry draws.
With the government scaling back its ambitious target from 500,000 to 395,000, many are asking:
What effects will these changes have on Express Entry draws and provincial nominee programs (PNPs)?
This adjustment reflects a strategic shift aimed at meeting the needs of the Canadian labor market and economic priorities.
In this article, we’ll examine how these new targets will affect Express Entry draws, category-based invitations, and PNP streams, as well as insights from various provinces and the evolving federal immigration policy.
Table of Contents
- Overview of New Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027
- Impact on Express Entry Draws: Shifting Federal Economic Priorities
- PNP Reductions: Challenges for Applicants
- Trends in CRS Scores and Future Predictions
- Conclusion
Overview of New Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027
| Year | Target | Low Range | High Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 395,000 | 367,000 | 436,000 |
| 2026 | 380,000 | 352,000 | 416,000 |
| 2027 | 365,000 | 338,000 | 401,000 |
The new immigration plan indicates a gradual reduction in targets over the next three years while allowing for flexibility to adapt to changing economic and demographic needs.
Impact on Express Entry Draws: Shifting Federal Economic Priorities
Express Entry will experience significant changes under the new “Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus” categories, distinct from the previous overall “Federal High Skilled” category.
Positively, the total number of new permanent residents under these two new categories has increased to 124,680, compared to the earlier target of 110,770—an increase of 12.55% despite an overall reduction of nearly 21% in annual permanent residency targets.
This category-based approach will prioritize fields such as 35 healthcare occupations, 10 trade occupations, and French-speaking applicants. The 2025 target allocates 41,700 admissions to this category, reflecting a strategic aim to address critical labor shortages.
Additionally, 82,980 admissions are designated under the “In-Canada Focus,” which will primarily benefit candidates from the Canadian Experience Class and other regional immigration pathways.
What should applicants do?
This change signals good news for temporary residents in Canada seeking permanent residency options. The IRCC’s consultations regarding Express Entry draw categories for 2025 have emphasized selecting temporary residents already in Canada, including former international students and temporary foreign workers.
Expect to see more frequent Canadian Experience Class draws or possibly a new format targeting specific categories, such as healthcare.
Candidates should focus on the 35 healthcare occupations, 10 trade occupations, and enhance their French language skills to boost their chances of receiving permanent residency.
PNP Reductions: Challenges for Applicants
A significant change in the 2025-2027 plan is the steep cut to PNP allocations. The target for 2025 has dropped from 120,000 to just 55,000 admissions—less than half of the original goal.
Most provincial nominee programs operate through both non-Express Entry and Express Entry streams. The quota for non-Express Entry streams has decreased by over 50%, while PNP Express Entry streams remain unaffected.
What Does This Mean for PNP Applicants?
- Fewer Invitations: Candidates relying on provincial immigration programs that previously accepted lower CRS scores will now face limited opportunities.
- Impact on Specific Programs: Students and workers targeting provinces like Ontario and British Columbia may encounter delays or rejections due to reduced quotas.
- Federal-Provincial Tensions: This reduction may heighten tensions between federal and provincial governments regarding immigration control.
Provincial leaders, including Alberta’s Premier and Toronto’s Mayor, have already voiced concerns about the lowered PNP targets.
What should applicants do?
The cut to PNP quotas is a significant setback for many. Applicants should focus on PNP streams that operate within the Express Entry system and ensure their profiles align with eligibility criteria for these programs.
Trends in CRS Scores and Future Predictions
As of October 2024, a substantial number of candidates in the CRS pool are scoring above 500 points.
With the move toward category-based draws, we anticipate:
- More Frequent CEC Draws: Regular Canadian Experience Class draws are likely to increase, particularly given the emphasis on the “In-Canada Focus.”
- Lower CRS Scores for Specific Draws: Candidates in healthcare and trade occupations may receive invitations with scores around 430-450 points.
- Challenges for Non-Priority Candidates: Those outside the targeted categories might struggle to receive invitations without exceptionally high CRS scores or provincial nominations.
Conclusion
The reduction in Canada’s immigration targets signals a shift towards balancing economic needs with policy priorities. While the PNP cuts may disappoint some, the focus on in-Canada applicants and category-based draws opens new doors for others.
Express Entry continues to be a viable pathway, but success will require careful planning—candidates should consider learning French or pursuing careers in priority occupations.
The key takeaway? Adapt quickly and apply early to navigate this evolving immigration landscape.
How French-Speaking Candidates Can Benefit
The government aims to increase the percentage of French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec to 8.5% by 2025 and 10% by 2027. This focus on francophone immigration will likely enhance opportunities for candidates proficient in French across various fields.